Rapport DeFi du 2026-09-25

Perps remain the only sector with meaningful token capture, though multiples are elevated. Lending multiples are low, but several protocols pass quality flags, though capture is generally absent.

ROBINHOOD CHAIN — DAILY 2026-09-24

ÉTAT ON-CHAIN

Chain TVL stands at $1.001B (-0.8% 24h), marking a consolidation after a week of upward volatility. The trajectory shows a recovery from a low of $905M on Sept 13 to a local high of $1.009B on Sept 21, suggesting initial launch momentum is stabilizing. Capital quality is a concern: Morpho Blue dominates with $561M TVL (~56% of chain), while Steakhouse Financial holds $512M (~51%). This overlap implies significant capital recycling—yield seekers moving collateral between lending and risk curation—rather than fresh, sticky inflows. DEX activity is secondary, with Uniswap V4 at $197M and Lighter Perps at $100M. The 97% fee collapse reported yesterday persists, indicating that while volume is high, the price of security is rapidly commoditizing.

CATALYSEURS

• SEC "Innovation Exemption" (Regulatory): The approval allowing tokenized stocks to trade on-chain is the foundational driver. It legitimizes Robinhood Chain's core value proposition (24/7 tokenized equities), directly explaining the inflow into Morpho, which now facilitates borrowing against these newly compliant assets.
• Morpho Collateral Expansion (Product): The integration of Coinbase's tokenized stocks as borrowable collateral transforms Morpho from a generic lending market into the primary liquidity layer for tokenized RWAs. This deepens the coupling between regulatory clarity and on-chain utility.
• Competitive RWA Landscape (Market): Near's integration of Ondo Finance and Arch Lending's move into tokenized stocks signal a sector-wide land grab. This external pressure validates the thesis but forces Robinhood Chain to compete on UX and fee structure, exacerbating the current fee compression.
• Insider Trading Charges (Regulatory): The charging of two Robinhood engineers for insider trading via Hyperliquid perps introduces reputational friction. While not a direct chain risk, it necessitates stricter internal surveillance, potentially increasing operational compliance costs.

VALUE ACCRUAL

Robinhood Chain operates without a native token, meaning the protocol itself captures value indirectly through user retention and brokerage fees, not on-chain governance or inflation. The primary beneficiary of current activity is Morpho, which captures the spread on lending against tokenized stocks. However, the 97% reduction in chain fees poses a structural risk to Morpho's revenue ceiling if the fee compression is passed down to users or if it signals a race to the bottom on margins. Steakhouse Financial accrues value via risk curation fees on the recycled capital. dYdX Arcus and Lighter capture trading fees, though current DEX TVL suggests this is secondary to the lending boom. Value accrual is currently concentrated in the application layer (Morpho) rather than the infrastructure layer (Robinhood Chain).

LECTURE RÉGIME

In a down-cycle characterized by scarce fresh capital and global regulatory tightening (MiCA, Taiwan's crypto framework, US GENIUS Act), Robinhood Chain represents the "Compliance moat" thesis. The structural flow is not from retail degens seeking yield, but from regulated institutions (and broker-dealers) seeking on-chain exposure to RWAs within a legal sandbox. The SEC's exemption is the regime shift; it allows Robinhood to bypass the regulatory friction that stifles other L2s. However, the regime also demands rigorous compliance—the insider trading charges are a warning that the "regulated" label invites higher scrutiny. The chain is becoming the preferred venue for tokenized securities not because it is the most decentralized, but because it is the safest harbor in a storm of enforcement.

À SURVEILLER

• Morpho Utilization Rate: Monitor the ratio of borrowed ($452M) to supplied ($561M) on Morpho. A decline would indicate demand for leverage on tokenized stocks is cooling.
• Ex-Morpho TVL Growth: Track protocol TVL excluding Morpho and Steakhouse. Flat growth here would confirm that all current activity is yield farming rather than organic ecosystem expansion.
• Fee Sustainability: Watch for any stabilization in transaction fees. A continued 97% suppression suggests the chain is operating as a loss leader for Robinhood's brokerage arm, which is unsustainable for independent infrastructure providers in the long run.

RWA — DAILY 2026-09-24

ÉTAT DU SECTEUR

The RWA sector TVL stands at $4.71B, reflecting a sharp structural reset over the last 7 days (-5.89%). The trajectory indicates a significant drawdown from the ~$5.8B plateau sustained between Sept 19-22, with a pronounced inflection point on Sept 22 that erased nearly $1B in AUM. Despite the weekly bleed, the sector is flat over the last 24h (+0.05%), suggesting stabilization at this new lower liquidity level.

Capital quality remains skewed toward institutional stickiness. The top protocols are dominated by regulated issuers:

• Invesco USTB ($550M, +4.25% 7d): The strongest gainer among majors, capitalizing on demand for tokenized treasuries across Ethereum, Solana, and Plume.
• Ethena USDtb ($476M, -1.41% 7d): Stable but slight outflow, functioning as a liquidity sink.
• Re ($383M, +3.98% 7d): Demonstrating resilience in insurance/reinsurance risk pools.
• Huma ($380M, +16.63% 7d): The standout performer, driven by V2 adoption and multi-chain expansion (Solana, Stellar, Monad).

The sector is bifurcating: while private credit and treasury protocols (Huma, Invesco) see inflows or stability, speculative or yield-chasing sub-sectors likely contributed to the $1B outflow observed mid-week.

CATALYSEURS

The period is defined by a convergence of central bank adoption and product maturation in tokenized equities.

• Institutional Infrastructure (ECB & Canada): The ECB's announcement regarding the Pontes DLT system to invest own funds in tokenized securities, coupled with Canada's 'Big Six' banks launching an interbank tokenized deposit initiative, validates the plumbing for RWA. This regulatory clarity drives the "sticky" capital flow into protocols like Invesco USTB, as banks prepare for a tokenized settlement layer.
• Tokenized Equities Infrastructure: Ondo's launch of an in-kind conversion system, allowing direct stock-to-tokenized-share conversion for institutions, and Near's integration of Ondo’s tokenized stocks with confidential execution, marks the operational maturation of the equity sub-narrative. This correlates with the strength seen in broader RWA TVL stabilization.
• CFTC Stance: Chairman Selig’s comments on preparing for ‘mass tokenization’ act as a psychological catalyst, reducing the perceived regulatory risk for institutional allocators entering the space.
• Product Expansion: Kamui Finance's launch of institutional vaults (integrated with DigiFT, Hastra Prime, Midas) and Arch Lending's pivot to tokenized equities as collateral signal that DeFi primitives are actively building interfaces for these RWA assets.

VALUE ACCRUAL

Value capture remains heavily concentrated with issuers rather than protocol tokens.

• Issuer Models (Fee Capture): Invesco USTB, Ethena USDtb, Re, Huma, BlackRock BUIDL, Circle USYC. These protocols generate yield via management fees and spreads on the underlying assets (T-bills, credit lines, insurance premiums). The TVL directly accrues to the balance sheets of the traditional financial giants (Invesco, BlackRock) or the DeFi entity (Ethena) without a public token distributing this value.
• Tokenized Models (Speculative/Protocol Revenue): Ondo (ONDO) and Centrifuge (CFG) remain the primary exceptions where the token has a claim on protocol activity or governance. Ondo's recent equity moves bolster its utility, but the bulk of the $4.7B TVL is locked in issuer-centric products where the "token" is merely a representation of the IOU, not a equity stake in the revenue stream.

LECTURE RÉGIME

We are in a regime of Regulatory Clarification driving Institutional Flow. The "fresh money" entering crypto is not retail speculation but institutional capital seeking yield and operational efficiency on-chain.

• Structural Driver: The ECB's Pontes and the Canadian banks' initiatives are not pilots; they are production-ready infrastructure. This confirms that RWA is the primary vector for traditional finance (TradFi) to interact with public blockchains.
• Scarcity of Capital: The -5.89% weekly TVL drop highlights that capital is not infinite. It is rotating from experimental or high-risk RWA experiments (likely the source of the outflow) into "safe" institutional-grade treasuries (Invesco) and established credit markets (Huma).
• Jurisdictional Arbitrage: With the US GENIUS Act and MiCA providing frameworks, and the CFTC openly discussing mass tokenization, the regulatory risk premium is compressing. This favors protocols that can navigate compliance (KYC/AML) over anonymous, permissionless yield farming.

À SURVEILLER

• ECB Pontes Deployment: Specific dates for the DLT system going live with the ECB's own funds—this will be a benchmark for sovereign adoption.
• Canadian Bank Tokenized Deposits: Watch for the first interbank settlement transaction on this new rail.
• Huma Finance V2 Expansion: Monitor if the 16% weekly growth continues as new collateral types or lending markets open on Stellar/Monad.
• Anemoy Capital Recovery: After a -50.52% 7d decline, determine if this was a redemption event or a technical failure; it serves as a canary for liquidity stress in smaller RWA vaults.